The Real ‘October Surprise’ That Will Determine How Battleground States Swing
Reading Time: 5 minutesWith election infrastructure damaged and voting sites barely operational, hurricane-ravaged states are scrambling to secure a fair election., Election 2024: How Hurricanes Helene and Milton scrambled voting in the American South
It’s been mere weeks since Hurricanes Helene and Milton walloped the American South in rapid succession, and the affected regions have hardly had enough time to recover, rebuild, and reconfigure the infrastructure of daily life (e.g., power, water, shelter, internet, and cell service) into working order again—not least thanks to all the conspiracy theorists and anti-government vigilantes. But the election cycle continues to move, and by Tuesday, voters in hard-hit states like North Carolina, Florida, and Georgia will be expected to have cast their ballots, no matter their current plight or conditions, and how harshly the storms have scrambled local election offices themselves.
Needless to say, these are also battleground states necessary for a victory in either party’s column, and the subsequent targets of voter-turnout efforts, opportunistic liars, and emergency governmental resources at both the state and federal level. And anyone assisting has to ensure voters are safe and properly informed not just for the sake of the Electoral College, but for all the essential lower-level races: city and county officials, state jurists, members of school boards and utility commissions.
So, on the eve of this week’s existentially important Election Day, how are these hurricane-ravaged, democratically concerned Americans faring?
Right after the rains from Helene pummeled Western North Carolina in early October, and after residents ensured that family and loved ones were accounted for, officials got right to work prepping the state for early voting, which kicked off on Oct. 17. This was badly needed if a free and fair election were to happen in the state, as more than one-fifth of the state’s voters claim to ‘have experienced a lot of impact,’ according to an Elon University poll.
Early last month, North Carolina’s government implemented recommendations from the State Board of Elections that offered more voting flexibility to the 25 counties deemed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency to be ‘disaster areas.’ Such adjustments, which also had to be approved on a county-by-county level, included allowing polling places to accommodate voters from different precincts, sending notification letters to people whose normal voting sites needed to be relocated, dispatching crews to personally bring absentee ballots to voters, and granting said voters the ability to mail in early ballots to a different county than the one they’re registered in.
All the efforts seemed to help quite a bit: According to Blue Ridge Public Radio, a record-breaking 4.2 million North Carolinians cast their ballots during the early-voting period, with turnout from the disaster areas outpacing the rest of the state. Notably, the Elon poll had also found that 20 percent of North Carolina voters ‘said they are more likely to vote because of Helene,’ with just 2 percent saying they were less likely to do so.) These reempowered voters included Republicans who blamed the Biden-Harris administration for the slow recovery, climate-conscious environmentalists, and voters upset enough by Donald Trump’s conspiratorial responses to the hurricane to consider a ticket switch. So far, GOP voters are slightly ahead of registered Dems in early-voting tallies.
While plenty of urban liberals and younger college students live (and vote) from ravaged cities like Asheville, the number of requests for absentee ballots in the surrounding, redder areas far exceeded those coming from Asheville. As for in-person early-voting places: The western part of the state managed to keep 75 of its 80 planned sites operational.
There are still troubling signs for North Carolinian democracy. At those polling sites themselves, one of the key remaining obstacles may be the state’s new voter-ID requirements, which went into effect after the last presidential cycle. Elon Musk’s America PAC, which is attempting to make up for Trump’s lack of durable canvassing infrastructure in North Carolina, was accused of sending workers out to knock on doors even as Helene was approaching, putting them in danger. Some congressional Republicans called for the state to just hand its 19 electoral votes to Trump, due to the sheer wreckage. And some precincts in the eastern part of the state are reporting multiple attempts at voter intimidation. We’re still on the razor’s edge.
Like North Carolina, the twice-battered Sunshine State has seen surges in early-voting turnout, thanks to state-approved flexibility measures when it comes to mail-in ballots and in-person sites. These applied to the 13 counties most ravaged by Helene, which saw dozens of polling places and plenty of mailboxes wrecked by the rainstorms. With more heavy showers set to hit Florida this week, the early tallies may provide the most reliable gauge as to how a somewhat-tightening Senate race may shake out, where incumbent Rick Scott hopes to fend off Democratic challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.
One potentially decisive factor there: youth rage and subsequent turnout. A Florida Atlantic University poll, pre-hurricanes, found that most Floridians were keeping candidates’ climate change records in mind when deciding their vote. After Helene and Milton, anger over the state GOP’s risible climate denial—which persists even as this already-historic hurricane season threatens to send yet another storm Florida’s way—appears to be fueling younger voters, first-time voters, and door-knockers, according to a report from the Guardian:
Of course, universities are also facing the obstacles posed by Florida’s DeSantis-era voting restrictions, with longer wait lines appearing at college campuses than at precincts with older (and more Republican-leaning) voters. While Scott only leads his Democratic opponent by a few points, Trump still holds a commanding lead among Florida’s majority of Republican voters. And his top-ticket presence may be what matters most.
Helene’s impact in Georgia wasn’t nearly as extensive as it was in the aforementioned states, but it still could well make a difference: Most of the areas hit went for Trump in 2020. But those counties are likely to turn it around, according to Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger; even though election equipment testing and poll-worker training was paused, none of the technology was damaged, per the state government. Some post offices were affected, though, which necessitated a change in approach to the surrounding constituencies.
This is Georgia’s first presidential election under the new voter-suppression laws passed by the state right after 2020, the year that saw a Democrat win the state’s electoral votes for the first time since 1992. With fewer drop boxes and absentee-ballot options available to Georgians, most engaged residents have turned to early voting in person—and have already been shattering records.
In addition, because Georgia is a state full of climate-concerned Americans who often don’t always head to the polls, organizers are working to encourage these folks to make their voice heard, reaching into deeper neighborhoods in the state and pointing to the effect of Helene as a hopefully galvanizing force. Kamala Harris is likely going to depend on those voters, as the presidential race here is very, very tight. (On a national scale, the youth-focused climate advocacy group the Sunrise Movement claims to have contacted 4 million voters across battlegrounds like North Carolina and Georgia.)
That doesn’t mean voting difficulties weren’t at play. Civil rights groups attempted to sue the Peach State into extending its voter-registration deadlines after Helene, only to lose in court to the same state government officials that had passed those voter-suppression laws back in 2021. Voters in Cobb County who didn’t receive their absentee ballots in time have also been denied an extended timeline for submission, following a last-minute decision from the Georgia Supreme Court.
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